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Written by the recently deceased Therese Delpech, Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Cold War for a New Era of Strategic Piracy, is a well-written and relevant book about the emergence of nuclear weapons in fragile or unstable countries or the potential possession of nuclear weapons by nonstate actors that provide unique security challenges. With the backdrop of the ongoing crisis involving Iran and its quest to develop nuclear power capability and the West's determination to prevent them from developing the capability of weaponizing it, Delpech addresses one of the world's greatest security concerns.

Although the likelihood of a massive nuclear war has decreased in the last 20 years, Delpech argues that the likelihood of a nuclear attack has increased. Possibilities include nuclear terrorism from a terrorist group not concerned with a retaliatory attack, radical Islamists challenging the Pakistani government and gaining control of their nuclear arsenal, a radical nonstate actor instigating a war between Pakistan and India, a North Korean attack, Israeli use in response to an existential threat e.

A common theme in the book is that deterrence remains a relevant and necessary strategy as the West faces these significant security concerns in and beyond. An unknown error has occurred. National Interest. Gerson, eds. Strategic Stability: Contending Interpretations. Strategic Studies Institute and U. Roiling the waters.

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Dobbs, M. Alfred A. Knopf, New York. Doron, A. Cumulative deterrence and the war on terrorism. Parameters Winter Fursenko, A. Norton, New York. Garthoff, R. The Havana conference on the Cuban missile crisis in Cold War international history. Project Bulletin No. George, A. The need for influence theory and actor-specific behavioral models of adversaries. Schneider and J. Post, eds. Columbia University Press, New York. Gigerenzer, G. Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox. Green, D. Hallegatte, S.

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Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century

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Psychology and Deterrence. Kahn, H. On Thermonuclear War. Khan, K. Stimson Center, Washington, D. Khan, F. Eating Grass: the Making of the Pakistani Bomb. Stanford University Press, Stanford, Calif. Kahneman, D. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York. Klein, G. The fiction of optimization.

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Nuclear deterrence in the century. Lessons from the cold ..|INIS

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Thérèse Delpech

Accessed February 11, National Research Council. Post Cold War Conflict Deterrence. National Academy Press, Washington, D. Payne, K. National Institute Press, Fairfax, Va. Quinlan, M. Oxford University Press. Oxford, U. Institute for International Policy Studies. Rid, T. Deterrence beyond the state: The Israeli experience. Comparative Strategic Policy 33 1 Rosenhead, J. A new paradigm of analysis. Rosenhead and J. Mingers, eds. Sanger, D. Crown Publishing, New York. Sawyer, J. Dissuasion by denial in counterterrorism: Theoretical and empirical deficiencies. Schelling, T.

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Gottfried, L. Gronlund, G. Lewis, T. Postol, and D. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Mass. Slocombe, W. The countervailing strategy. International Security 5 4 Snyder, G. Thaler, R. Penguin Books, New York. United States Institute of Peace. Strategic Command. Utgoff, V. Waltz, K. Nuclear myths and political realities. American Political Science Review Watman, K. Wilkening, J. Arquilla, and B. Regional Defense Strategies. Wheeler, M. Institute for Defense Analysis, Alexandria, Va.

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The large numbers and diversified nature of the U. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms.

This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century.

This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

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    A New Nuclear Strategy for 21st Century Realities

    Page 24 Share Cite. Page 25 Share Cite. TABLE Definitions Term Meaning Influence Effects on the decisions of another party by, for example, positive inducements, persuasion, dissuasion, deterrence, compellence, and punishment. Dissuasion by denial often called deterrence by denial Convincing an adversary not to take an action by having the perceived capability to prevent success adequate justify the costs. Direct deterrence Deterring an attack on the United States or its immediate interests. Extended deterrence Convincing an adversary not to take an action against the interests of an ally by the methods of broad deterrence.

    Dissuasion Persuading an actor such as an adversary from taking a particular action. Seller Inventory AAR More information about this seller Contact this seller. Seller Inventory Never used! This item is printed on demand. Book Description Condition: New. Seller Inventory n. Paperback or Softback. Seller Inventory BBS Seller Inventory ING Seller Inventory M Seller Inventory NEW